A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Two countries are expected to benefit from the war and higher oil prices, and that's China and Russia, historically adversaries of the United States. Michael McFaul served as U.S. ambassador to Russia in the Obama administration. He's now at Stanford University and the author of "Autocrats Vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, And The New Global Disorder."
So let's start with Russia here. The economy is struggling. How does this war help them?
MICHAEL MCFAUL: This war has given them all kinds of new money because the price of oil has skyrocketed. In addition, the Trump administration decided to lift some sanctions on Russian oil companies, worried about the price of oil. They wanted to put more oil in the world. And that is another lifeline to the Russian economy.
But that's not the only thing. We are now using weapons, particularly these interceptors, PAC-3 interceptors that are part of the patriot missile defense system that are in deficit all over the world. The Ukrainians desperately need these interceptors. We're now using them in the Middle East instead of sending them to our NATO allies that would send them to Ukraine. That is a huge benefit for Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, I think the big thing we need to remember is - we may not think this, and I most certainly don't, that Putin's war in Ukraine is the same as Trump's war in Iran. But to the rest of the world, we look a lot similar. We look like we didn't get a U.N. Security Council resolution to start this war. We chose to attack Iran. And for a lot of people around the world, it looks like we're more like them. That, to me, is a win for Putin and a loss for us.
MARTÍNEZ: Let's move to China. Its economy needs oil from the Gulf States. Why are they the runner up behind Russia in terms of who benefits from this war?
MCFAUL: Well, in the short term, their economy is hurting. But in the bigger picture, it gets back to what I said about Russia. In the bigger picture, we look like we're the cowboys, like the Russians, like we don't care about the rules-based international order. China, in contrast, looks like the status quo power. Looks like they're the ones that play by the U.N. rules.
Now, I have a different view. I think they violate them in a kind of quiet stealth way. But compared to us and compared to the Russians, they look like the stable international player. Especially when we're talking about in places like Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, they look like the status quo power, we look like a revisionist power.
MARTÍNEZ: Is it just only a rosy economic picture for Russia and China because of the Iran war? Or are there any costs to either or both of them?
MCFAUL: One good thing for Ukraine and bad for Putin is that the rest of the world, including the United States, have now understood that the future warfare is going to have a lot to do with drones. Well, the Ukrainians have been fighting a war with drones for four years. I think you're going to see new contracts for the Ukrainians with many Middle Eastern countries, and I hope even with the United States of America. That is a cost for Putin.
I think Xi Jinping looks like - you know, people talked about him organizing the world, and he would be the arbitrator, the mediator. They even mediated an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia several years ago. That position of them as a great power in the system doesn't look so good right now. They were unable to stop this war, to prevent this war. And so far, they've been able to stop the war, so there are costs to them as well.
MARTÍNEZ: Michael McFaul served as U.S. ambassador to Russia in the Obama administration. Ambassador, thanks for your time.
MCFAUL: Thanks for having me.
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