AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Florida's governor is calling for lawmakers to redraw the state's congressional map. That could help the GOP take more seats in the midterms. At the same time, Democrats recently won two state legislative races there. Douglas Soule of member station WUSF reports on the mood swings in the state's politics.
DOUGLAS SOULE, BYLINE: A regular gathering of Tallahassee insiders, the Capital Tiger Bay Club offers lunch, conversation and speeches from top officials. Recently, the members were buzzing about surprising Democratic wins in special elections. One was retired accountant Dean Minardi who says it's hard to know what comes next.
DEAN MINARDI: There is no guarantee in politics. There is no guarantee.
SOULE: That's clear after the elections last month. Democrat Brian Nathan flipped a Tampa state Senate seat, and Emily Gregory flipped a House seat a Republican won by 19 points just two years ago. That district includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago. But she told WUSF the election was not about her presidential neighbor.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR CONTENT)
EMILY GREGORY: My opponent put President Trump at the forefront of his messaging. The endorsement was on most of his literature. For me, it was about talking about the issues that affect all of us and not one single, most famous constituent.
SOULE: Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports campaigns around the country, sees a national trend.
HEATHER WILLIAMS: These flips in Florida were our 29th and 30th flip of this election cycle already. State legislative candidates are defying odds across the country because they're laser-focused on affordability.
SOULE: The result also affects what's coming up soon in Florida that could determine who controls Congress after the November midterms. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has called on lawmakers to meet April 20 to draw a new congressional map. It comes as President Trump has pushed other Republican states to redistrict. But one Florida political analyst says the recent special elections could make Republicans think twice.
AUBREY JEWETT: I think they're still going to look into it. They still might even do it. But I will bet that it will not be quite as aggressive as it would have been.
SOULE: That's University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett. The catch is that when a party redraws voting lines to capture seats, it can make the safe seats they already hold more competitive.
JEWETT: It's possible you end up - instead of a gerrymander, you end up with what we might call a dummymander (ph). You've tried to help yourself, but instead, you've ended up hurting your own party and you lose seats.
SOULE: Some Florida Republican members of Congress had already expressed doubts about redistricting, and U.S. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said a Florida map change would help Democrats win seats. But Florida's Republican Party chair warns against reading too much into Florida's recent results. In an interview, Evan Power says special elections are just that.
EVAN POWER: I think what we've become very good at as Republicans is voting in regular election cycles. We're not particularly great at these special elections. But that doesn't mean anything come November when all our voters are going to turn out like they normally do, and we're going to rack up big wins.
SOULE: He says there's, quote, "clearly room" for the legislature to redistrict and so the GOP can pick up some seats. That's an opinion shared by Barney Bishop. He's a lobbyist, a Republican and a Capital Tiger Bay Club member at that recent lunch. He expects redistricting to go forward.
BARNEY BISHOP: It's a challenge, but I think the Republican staff will make that happen and present a solid plan, and I think the Republican legislature will adopt it. I think the governor will sign it.
SOULE: For now, it's just talk at the Tiger Bay Club. How state lawmakers weigh the risk could determine who controls the House. For NPR News, I'm Douglas Soule in Tallahassee, Florida.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.