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Texas Senate race: Republican divides and Trump's influence face a critical test

JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:

President Trump's endorsement in a US Senate race in Texas has upended one of the year's biggest elections. MAGA loyalist Ken Paxton won Trump's backing over incumbent Senator John Cornyn, a pillar of the Republican Party's establishment wing. The bitter primary has exposed a crack in the red wall of Texas as Republican factions battle for control. Democrats say it's opened a path for the state's first blue wave in decades. NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales is in Texas.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC)

CLAUDIA GRISALES, BYLINE: Music is blaring, the smell of smoked meats fills the air and people are scrambling for chairs at this old-school barbecue joint. This political rally has drawn a diverse group of voters from the Houston suburb of Katy. It could be mistaken for a victory party.

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UNIDENTIFIED MUSICAL ARTIST: (Singing) You can...

GRISALES: But this is a campaign stop for controversial MAGA star Ken Paxton, who's challenging U.S. senator John Cornyn. The costly, bitter Republican primary became a loyalty contest for President Trump. This week, he endorsed Paxton as early voting was underway, news this crowd was already celebrating.

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KEN PAXTON: And obviously, Donald Trump came in and did an amazing job. And by the way, did y'all notice he endorsed me yesterday?

(CHEERING)

GRISALES: The Texas attorney general came to the race with legal and personal baggage. Since he's entered the office, he's fended off criminal indictments, whistleblower allegations and political trials. But for supporters like Ricardo Vidaurre, those failed efforts prove Paxton is a fighter.

RICARDO VIDAURRE: (Speaking Spanish).

GRISALES: "Voting for Cornyn is like voting for a Democrat," Vidaurre says in Spanish. The runoff has become the most expensive on record, and Cornyn, who spent nearly $20 million on ads and was backed by national Republicans, has seen his campaign go on life support. Paxton says, work leading Texas in lawsuits against Democrats' policies in Washington eclipses Cornyn's long tenure.

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PAXTON: That's more stuff in one week than John Cornyn did in 42 years. That's pretty pathetic.

GRISALES: MAGA supporters attack Cornyn for working on bipartisan gun legislation after the Uvalde, Texas, School shooting and say he should have pushed to kill the Senate filibuster to pass a Trump-backed SAVE Act to install new voting restrictions. Brandon Rottinghaus, a politics professor at the University of Houston, says the Texas primary is emblematic of a bigger national fight.

BRANDON ROTTINGHAUS: The Republican Party is pulling itself apart. Ideologically, this has been a long time coming. The wings of the party have been battling each other for a long while, and none of them have emerged victorious.

GRISALES: That is, until Trump comes in and picks a winner. But even as Trump's endorsement of Paxton blindsided Cornyn, he's pushing full steam ahead. On the campaign trail before that endorsement, Cornyn told me the path to a Texas blue wave runs through Paxton and could cost the party's control of the Senate.

JOHN CORNYN: If a Paxton were the nominee, this would be the first chance they've had in 30 or 40 years or longer to pick up a statewide office and one as important as the U.S. Senate.

GRISALES: And Republicans are already facing headwinds over the economy and Trump's falling poll numbers. At a Houston real estate event, Cornyn supporter Vicki Fullerton saw Trump's endorsement as a betrayal. Fullerton worries a Paxton nomination will force a party to take critical resources from other close Senate races.

VICKI FULLERTON: And we're going to have to pour so much more money in to protect the seat and to have a less viable candidate than John Cornyn.

GRISALES: Since Democrats lost control of Texas in the 1990s, they have fallen for blue mirages. But Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha argues a perfect storm is taking shape.

CHUCK ROCHA: Latinos in Texas moving back to the left - you have an electorate that's really mad, and you have two Republicans who spent over $100 million attacking each other.

GRISALES: After state representative James Talarico won Democrats' nomination in the Senate race, he laid low. Rocha says it put the spotlight on Republicans tearing each other apart.

ROCHA: One thing you don't do in politics is if your enemy is digging a hole, you don't run over and take the shovel out of their hands.

GRISALES: Cornyn has warned that Democrats smell blood in the water here. How and if the MAGA establishment wings reconcile in Texas may help shape what version of the National Republican Party survives. Claudia Grisales, NPR News, Houston, Texas, and parts beyond.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Claudia Grisales is a congressional reporter assigned to NPR's Washington Desk.