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We’re getting mixed messages about what the summer holds, and whether it will drive the lake to another unprecedented low.
Temperatures this week in the Salt Lake Valley topped 90 degrees, which is well above normal for this time of year, according to Julie Cunningham, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City.
“Overall, we’re looking at temperatures 20 degrees above normal,” Cunningham said in an interview. “They’re more akin to early July than mid-May.”
We’re also a few days post-Mother’s Day, which is when most Utahns begin planting their gardens, filling their flowerbeds and really letting the irrigation water flow.
The Utah Division of Water Resources and other agencies have urged water users to hold back on irrigating. With the heat spike, however, the temptation may be too great to resist for many Utahns.
All of this, of course, does not bode well for the Great Salt Lake. You’ll recall we also had record-high temperatures in March, which accelerated melt of what little snowpack Utah received during a record-dry winter. That means the lake’s elevation peaked weeks ago, way ahead of schedule. The heat will drive more evaporation, meaning lake levels will keep dropping until temperatures cool off again in late fall.
The lake’s current elevation sits at 4,192 feet above sea level. That’s about one foot lower than this time last year and 3.5 feet above the record low it sunk to in 2022. It needs to rise about six feet to reach minimum sustainable elevation, and the lake typically loses about two to three feet each year due to evaporation. But keep in mind it’s getting a head start this spring because of all the dismal conditions.
“With what’s looking like another hot and dry summer we expect impacts to Great Salt Lake,” the Utah Department of Natural Resources said in an emailed statement. “We continue to urge all Utahns to incorporate all conservation measures as we face extreme drought across the state.”
Department reps added they don’t expect the lake to hit another record low this summer. But it’s hard to believe it won’t at least come close.
The lake’s continued decline means hundreds of miles of bare lakebed have now sat exposed for years, baking in the sun. We wondered what the implications could be for dust storms this season – bone-dry conditions in the 2021-2022 season, for example, created a whole lot of lake dust blowing on cities, collecting on mountain peaks and making the snow melt weeks ahead of normal, according to a University of Utah study.
So far, the dust this season doesn’t seem too bad, according to Derek Mallia, a research assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the U. and a co-author of that study.
“We’ve had a few events,” Mallia told me in an email, “but nothing I would call particularly abnormal, which is maybe a little surprising given our current drought.”
The scientist’s hypothesis is that the same persistent high-pressure system driving this extraordinarily hot spring is also keeping the storms down.
“However, it’s only May,” Mallia said, “so there is plenty of time for us to get dust from cold fronts.”
In other words, summer monsoons could mix things up, both meteorologically and from a dust perspective. Cunningham with the National Weather Service said the forecast for most of the state shows equal chances of above- or below-normal seasonal rainfall this year. If the monsoons do blow in, they could create dry thunderstorms that also generate gusty winds and dust events.
“So, we are not out of the woods by any means,” Mallia said.
And his predictions for the lake apparently run counter to those sent by state resource managers.
“It definitely looks like the GSL will be at a record low level by the end of this summer,” he said.
The scientist has another concern this season — exacerbated wildfire conditions.
“I often look at our mountains and snowpack as a natural ‘water tower,’ which keeps our forests hydrated throughout the summer,” Mallia said. “Obviously, we do not have any snowpack to speak of at this point, and so I am really concerned about [how] vulnerable this will make our forests to fire activity this summer.”