Jon Meyer, the assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center said the expectation for this winter in Northern Utah is normal to slightly above normal winter precipitation. He is optimistic Utah will have a string of years that follow this pattern.
When making predictions, Meyer said climatologists tend to lean away from dialing in numbers and from quantifying specific amounts. He said because seasons are dominated by events, this plagues the accuracy of seasonal predictions.
“You could have 85 out of 90 days that look very dry, but five days out of a 90 day period where we get huge snowfall we could really turn around a season," he said.
Meyer said they base predictions on what's called a climate teleconnection which typically entails climate patterns that span thousands of miles. For this reason many forecasters in the western U.S. look at the El Nino and La Nina cycles.
He said when the central Pacific Ocean gets warmer than normal, it’s considered an El Nino phase, and when it gets colder than normal, it’s a La Nina phase.
Meyer said people often make predictions whether Utah will be in an El Nino or La Nina year based on conditions in other states like California and Arizona. However, Utah can’t always be compared with other western states because climatologists don’t really see any statistical relationship with Utah in connection with the Pacific Ocean and its climate patterns.
“Sometimes we're drier than normal. Sometimes we're wetter than normal in an El Nino year," he said.
Instead, Meyer said climatologists in Utah look at the Quasi Decadal Oscillation, which usually controls Northern Utah’s snowpack. Meyer said as of last year, Utah transitioned back into the wet phase after being in the dry phase for about five years.
“It doesn't say we couldn't get another winter like we did last year, but the roll of that dice is pretty unfavorable to come up again like we had last year. Even a normal to a slightly above normal winter is great," Meyer said. "It's what we need to continue to provide drought relief to continue to recharge the state's reservoirs and water resources.”
