Mallory Bateman, the director of demographic research at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, explained the goals of the Institute and shared their most recent population projections.
“We are charged with providing demographic insight. So looking at the population in the state, looking at how it has changed over time," Bateman said. "We focus largely at the state and county levels, but every now and then are able to get into communities, but a lot of attention at the state and county level.”
Every four years the Institute conducts long-term planning projection work looking 40 years into the future for the state and counties. These specific projections are a byproduct of that work, looking at the school-age population which is five to 17 years old, and the college-age population which is 18 to 24 years old.
It was found that the projected population growth from 2020 to 2060 of these two age groups in the state of Utah is projected to be significantly lower than other age groups in the state.
“It's a direct connection to the births of five to 17 years before. And so the period that we're in right now, there's 10 years of kind of lower numbers of births overall and declining total fertility rates," Bateman said.
These projections indicate that there will be a general increase in both the college-age and school-age populations between 2020 and 2060. But the school-age population will decrease between 2024 and 2035 and the college-age population will decrease from 2032 to 2044.
The projections vary based on the county with the largest growth found on the Wasatch front specifically Utah county.
Thirteen counties in Utah are projected to experience a general decline in the school-age population between 2020 and 2060 including Carbon, Millard, Salt Lake, Summit, and Sevier counties, which are all projected to decrease by more than 1,000 residents.
“Just a reminder to everyone to dig into the data, you know, one layer of the data will give you one story, but there's always going to be another story if you dig a little deeper,” Bateman said.
